![]() These and so many other Indian-American tech sector executives are testament to the power of the immigration-innovation nexus in the U.S.ĭon’t let these rock star CEOs fool anyone into thinking the only way for Indian technologists to succeed is to work in the U.S. Likewise, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella received his undergraduate degree in India and followed up with diplomas from U.S. ![]() for a Stanford master’s and a Wharton MBA. Google’s new CEO Sundar Pichai WG02, for example, did his undergraduate degree in India before coming to the U.S. We all know about the incredible Indian talent running some of America’s tech icons. This is a tried-and-true path to growth, and it is one India is poised to follow.Ĭonsider India’s vaunted tech sector. India’s looks more like the poor country that it still is.īut this is a real opportunity for India. China has arguably the best physical infrastructure outside the Western world. Manufacturing is about 20 percent of the Indian economy it is about 30 percent of China’s. India invests about 30 percent of its GDP, compared with about 50 percent in China. Today, India lags far behind China on all three fronts. Its ability to quickly and efficiently move what it produces domestically and around the world has been a critical component in its growth miracle. China has been the world’s factory for 20 years. This has in turn made possible both an infrastructure revolution of new cities, high-speed rail lines, airports and ports, and manufacturing muscle that has been the envy of the world. Why?Ĭhinese growth has been driven by some of the world’s highest investment rates. But in the last-quarter century, China has accelerated its economy, while India’s has weakened comparatively. India began its economic reform in the early 1990s, more than a decade after China. China has been built on infrastructure, investment and manufacturing India has barely scratched the surface on all three. While a massive working-age population gives India the chance to become the world’s next growth titan, the country will have to work hard to translate its demographic windfall into much higher standards of living for average Indians. But Indian fertility will remain high by all but African standards, and this will be a great foundational resource for the economy. With more affluence, India’s birth rate will come down too. Indians will live longer, so the aged population will grow considerably. Over the next 35 years, its dependency ratio will actually decline from a bit over 50 percent today to a bit under 50 percent in 2050. ![]() By 2050, India will be the world’s largest country in terms of population by a wide margin over China, with a mind-boggling 1.7 billion people-400 million more than today. On this critical dimension, India is in much stronger shape than China. This will put massive strains on the country’s nascent welfare state and struggling health system.ĭemography isn’t destiny, but having a growing population with lots of working-age people is a great place to start. By 2050, China’s “dependency ratio”-that is, “dependents” (children and the aged) relative to people of working age-will double from 35 percent to 70 percent (the lasting effect of China’s one-child policy). Its population will peak just below 1.5 billion in the next decade and then slowly shrink to about 1.3 billion people by mid-century. India has demography on its side, whereas China faces serious demographic demons.Ĭhina is going to be the first country in history to be old before it’s rich.
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